Friday, February 15, 2013

Down day in the market - looking for bargains

As I write this, the Dow is down .5%, and when it's sneezes, many stocks get colds. So far my dump Blackberry strategy is holding, they're down another 5% today. Time to put my eye on some that got hit and some who defy the market.

Ruth's Hospitality Group Inc. (RUTH) - up 5% today, looks like "due to a 4Q that beat expectations". They're showing an overall increase the past 2 years, but there's some drops in there too.  But the restaurant industry is kinda fickle in my book. Will keep an eye on them.


 - this up 7% today, but their graph looks like they're trying not to go out of business. I think this gain is a fluke. No news announced other than some federal filings.  Heck, I couldn't even figure out what they do.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - down 2%, which isn't a surprise, their 1 year chart looks like a snow-capped mountain range outline.  The Motley Fool wrote an interesting article about them, but I put absolutely not faith in the Fool. Not saying I think their lying, but I used to follow their recommendations and I didn't like the results. The article is long and has lot's of computerese, seems like they're saying NVIDIA is turning a corner. Maybe, I'll just keep watching.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Good Bye Blackberry

Ok, the experiment officially ended this morning. I bought Blackberry (BBRY)- formerly Research In Motion last week in hopes of riding any short term gains they might accrue as a result of finally rolling out the Blackberry 10.  As of today I'm down 18%, and that's to poor for my blood.  Maybe it will rebound, but I'm not willing to lose more to find out. Looking at their history, 10 years ago they absolutely owned the cell phone market. For those too young to remember, imagine today if either Apple or Google didn't get into phones, and there was only one of them. It would rule the market. Period. That's how Blackberry (RIMM) was 10 years ago. There was even a term for it: Crackberry, because it was so addictive.

What happened?
In 2007 Apple rolled out the iPhone, and a short time after Google started giving away Android. RIMM obviously thought it was a fad that would pass.  Put simply, they didn't realize their world had suddenly changed, like the final scene in Aplocalypto.  For the next 4 or 5 years RIMM had 2 co-CEOs who obviously could not find their own butts in the dark.  They ignored the onslaught (and profits) of iPhones and the ubiquity of Android phones, choosing to "stay the course".  The stock, once in the $160 range, cratered over 3 years.  That little rise at the end is hope that the new phone will sell. 

Anyway, my point is that you have to draw a line in the sand. Frankly, I don't believe they will have their "Act II". Never did. I bought hoping they could keep it together for 3 months. They still might, but I don't believe it at this point.  And I think I can find other uses for my money.  As the song says, you gotta know when to fold 'em.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

5 Stocks I'm Watching

Here are 5 stocks I'm going to buy and why....

Delta (DAL)- Delta is up about 50% since September. Really quiet too. Over the last 5 years they haven't been too much higher than that, but I'm thinking as the economy continues to improve they might be able to ride that wave. This is a SWAG if ever their was one, but on a day like today when just about everything I'm watching is down, they're up 2%.

Nokia (NOK)- this company seems to finally be getting their act together too.  They had a strong 4Q and according to this article, they're ready to pop. At $4/share, they're back to where they were a year ago, but their historic high is in the $60 range. People still know the name so I doubt they're going out of business anytime soon.  If things go well, this could be a smoker....

Blackberry (BBRY)- Just rolled out a new phone. Finally.  A day late and a dollar short would be an understatement. Blackberry, formerly known as RIMM, ignored iPhones and Androids for the last 7 years and not only got their clocks cleaned, their watches, walls and minor children are also sparkling and springtime fresh.  Even though the reviews haven't been stellar, the phones are sold out in some areas.  Granted, maybe they only shipped 25 to some of those areas. Anyway, it remains to be seen if they can successfully un clusterscrew their business model. Nothing will really be known until the next quarterly earnings report.  Between now and then, I think the stock will move up on hope alone.  I don't see this as a long term play, unless they really blow the cover off everyone's expectations.

Facebook (FB)- Like I said last week, they've turned the corner now, the rose colored glasses have been taken off.  What we're seeing now is what people really feel like it's worth. I have no faith in Zuckerberg, and I suspect sooner than later he will put a grown up in charge.

Netflix (NFLX)- Yeah, I missed the 70% increase around January 25. Looks like the postal delivery cutbacks might help them, according to this article.  The math is weird, but it does kinda make sense. After getting burned by Starz a few years back, they're getting into producing their own content. On a separate note, my local Blockbuster, one of a few still open, is closing. Looks like Netflix won....

Friday, February 1, 2013

I can't prove it, but I think someone is manipulating Apple stock

Last week Apple announced quarterly earnings that were the 4th largest ever recorded. This is over a year after the passing of Steve Jobs, an event everyone thought would mean the demise of the company. In return, "the street" knocked 12% of the value of Apple's stock price. Say what you want, that makes no sense. I can't prove it, but I would not be surprised if someone made out like a fat rat.  The stock has slowly rebounded since this crazy drop.  By contrast, Amazon's earnings fell short of analyst's expectations... and it rose.  Yeah, The Street is logical.

Anyway, I missed the sub $20 price, but at about $29/share, I think Facebook might be a good stock to buy. I don't know what their expected earnings are going forward, but the fact that in the span of about 4 months they've risen about 50% after dropping 30% from their IPO price says to me that investors are behind them.